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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.