How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in Trump's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a history of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.